Volume 21, Issue 4 (12-2024)
jor 2024, 21(4): 33-50 |
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Salehi M, Goudarzi D, Jabarpour E. Presenting a Model to Assess the Risk of Design and Construction in Gas Transmission Line Projects Using Gray Multi-Criteria Decision Making (Case Study: Abadan-Basra 48 Inch Gas Transmission Pipeline Project). jor 2024; 21 (4) :33-50
URL: http://jamlu.liau.ac.ir/article-1-2234-en.html
URL: http://jamlu.liau.ac.ir/article-1-2234-en.html
Industrial Engineering Department, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran , Mojtaba.salehi@pnu.ac.ir
Abstract: (1305 Views)
Risk in the project is an uncertain event that, if it happens, has a positive or negative effect on the project's goals. These risk-generating and uncertain factors can affect the achievement of the goals of huge projects.
In this research, by obtaining the opinions of experts and using the Delphi method in three stages, as well as examining potential risks in previous researches, risk cases have been categorized based on the risk custodian and the impact of risk on the project goals. In terms of nature, this research is an exploratory research and in terms of structure, it is a case study on the 48-inch Abadan-Basra pipeline project. In the following, the impact of each risk on the project goals (time, quality, cost, safety) has been analyzed and prioritized by using direct interviews and completing questionnaires based on the opinions of 32 managers and experts in the design and construction of pipeline projects. In order to solve multi-criteria decision-making problems in uncertain conditions, a model based on gray system theory including relative analysis and gray numbers has been proposed, and then the problem has been solved by applying the gray degree of possibility relationship. The most significant risks obtained include: lack of liquidity of the employer, insufficient financial capacity of the contractor, tight schedule, embargo/war, price inflation, mistakes in the timing and sequence of activities, weak management of the contractor, etc. Responses such as: appropriate financial planning and preparation of cash flow, planning of resources and materials, calculation of earned value, establishment of knowledge management system and records of projects, etc. have been provided.
In this research, by obtaining the opinions of experts and using the Delphi method in three stages, as well as examining potential risks in previous researches, risk cases have been categorized based on the risk custodian and the impact of risk on the project goals. In terms of nature, this research is an exploratory research and in terms of structure, it is a case study on the 48-inch Abadan-Basra pipeline project. In the following, the impact of each risk on the project goals (time, quality, cost, safety) has been analyzed and prioritized by using direct interviews and completing questionnaires based on the opinions of 32 managers and experts in the design and construction of pipeline projects. In order to solve multi-criteria decision-making problems in uncertain conditions, a model based on gray system theory including relative analysis and gray numbers has been proposed, and then the problem has been solved by applying the gray degree of possibility relationship. The most significant risks obtained include: lack of liquidity of the employer, insufficient financial capacity of the contractor, tight schedule, embargo/war, price inflation, mistakes in the timing and sequence of activities, weak management of the contractor, etc. Responses such as: appropriate financial planning and preparation of cash flow, planning of resources and materials, calculation of earned value, establishment of knowledge management system and records of projects, etc. have been provided.
Keywords: Risk Assessment, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Degree Of Gray Possibility, Gray Numbers, Gas Transmission Pipelines
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2024/06/14 | Accepted: 2024/11/3 | Published: 2024/12/21
Received: 2024/06/14 | Accepted: 2024/11/3 | Published: 2024/12/21
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